Expresses a low-to-medium level of possibility (around 50% or less). Where でしょう/だろう sounds like a prediction, かもしれない sounds like you are floating one possible reality among several — with no commitment.
[Plain form / Noun / な-adj (no だ)] + かもしれない
明日は雨が降るかもしれません。
Ashita wa ame ga furu kamo shiremasen.
It might rain tomorrow.
降る (plain) + かもしれません (polite) = expresses possibility
彼はもう忘れているかもしれない。
Kare wa mou wasurete iru kamo shirenai.
He might have already forgotten.
忘れている + かもしれない = a floating possibility
その話、本当かもしれないよ。
Sono hanashi, hontou kamo shirenai yo.
That story might actually be true.
Noun 本当 + かもしれない — note: no だ inserted
• The weakest of the 'certainty' words — use it when you don't want to be held responsible for being wrong. • The 'da' Rule: Unlike でしょう, you MUST NOT insert だ before かもしれない with a noun or な-adjective: 元気かもしれない (NOT 元気だかもしれない). • Slang: In very casual speech it shrinks to just 〜かも at the end. (行くかも!= I might go!).
The JLPT rarely asks whether you recognise a pattern — it asks which of several similar patterns fits. These are the ones かもしれない is tested against.
でしょう is a confident ~80% prediction; かもしれない is a hedged ~50%-or-less possibility you won't commit to.
はず asserts a logically expected outcome ('it should be so'); かもしれない only raises it as one uncertain possibility.
に違いない is near-certain conviction; かもしれない is the opposite end — mere possibility.
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